The following analysis was submitted by Rocky River Republican Club Secretary & Executive Board Member Jim Trutko.

HERE'S WHAT GREATER CLEVELANDERS ARE BEING TAXED/BORROWED TO FINANCE STIMULUS

Obama's Stimulus Package

$800,000,000,000

 $800 Billion

 

Gr Cle (7-county) %of US

1.0%

 3 million/300 million

 

Amount taxed or borrowed on behalf of Greater Clevelanders

$8,000,000,000

 $8 Billion

 

 

 

 

 

WHAT DOES THE STIMULUS PACKAGE COSTS GREATER CLEVELANDERS?

 

Cost per capita Gr Clevelanders

$2,710

 2,950,000 Pop

 

Cost per Gr Cleveland adult

$3,600

 2,220,000 Adults

 

Cost per Gr Cleveland household

$6,780

 1,118,000 Households

 

 

 

 

WHAT DOES THE STIMULUS PACKAGE COSTS EACH PAYING US TAXPAYER?

 

Obama's Stimulus Package

$800,000,000,000

 $800 Billion

 

Number of US taxpayers paying taxes

133,000,000  

Paying taxpayers= 44% of pop

Cost per paying US taxpayers

$6,020

 $8 Billion

 

 

 

 

 

WHAT THE COST PER JOB OF THE STIMULUS PACKAGE?

 

 

Obama's Stimulus Package

$800,000,000,000

 $800 Billion

 

Obama's Promised Results

4,000,000

 4 million "good paying jobs"

Cost per job

$200,000

 Per job

 

 

 

 

 

HOW MANY JOBS GREATER CLEVELAND WOULD GET AS THEIR "SHARE"?

 

Obama's Promised Results

4,000,000

 4 million

 

Gr Cle (8-county) %of US

1.0%

 

 

Number of jobs for Greater Clevelanders

40,000

 40,000 "good jobs"

 

Note: time frame is undetermined, but implicitly probably 2 years

 

 

 

 

 

 

WHAT WOULD THIS JOB INCREASE MEAN?

Now

Projected (2 Years)

 

Employed

1,400,000

1,440,000

 

Unemployed

100,000

60,000

 

Total

1,500,000

1,500,000

 

Unemployment rate

6.7%

4.0%

 

 

 

 

 

IS THIS JOB INCREASE POSSIBLE OR REALISTIC?

 

 

Est Cle-Akr Employed and GDP (Economy.com)

Employed

GDP (C$Bill)

 

2003

1,400,900

$100.9

 

2004

1,403,400

$103.6

 

2005

1,409,600

$104.9

 

2006

1,413,800

$106.0

 

2007

1,410,000

$106.5

 

2008

1,400,000

$106.0

 

2009

1,400,000

$106.0

 

2010

1,420,000

$109.2

 

2011

1,440,000

$112.5

 

Comments: Probably not possible to put together a convincing picture. Here's why.

 

3% GDP growth is probably required for projected employment growth if productivity growth=2%.

 

Based on historical employment trends, it's difficult to see permanent job increase of 40,000 jobs.

 

Based on migration trends, it's difficult to imagine reversal of outmigration needed to support retail/service job growth

Implication is training and major infrastructure projects will boost short-term job totals and create potential opportunities.

It is difficult to see how short-term projects translate into long-term GDP boosts.

 

 -Nature of public infrastructure projects are just repair of existing facilities. Nature of training is at low skill end.

 -Hard to see how immediate local training/infrastructure projects lead to long-term productivity gains creating opportunities

 -Hard to imagine huge investments generating big GDP gains in light of current excess capacity and economic composition

 

 

 

 

WHAT KINDS OF ALTERNATIVE LOCAL"STIMULUS" COULD YOU BUY FOR GREATER CLEVELAND'S $8 BILLION

Obama's Stimulus Package

$800,000,000,000

 

 

Amount taxed or borrowed on behalf of Greater Clevelanders

$8,000,000,000

 

 

 

 

 

 

1. Give every unemployed person in Gr Cle an annual stipend of $10,000 for colllege or vocational training for 4 years

100,000

 Unemployed

 

Total 4-yr unemp stipend

$4,000,000,000

 Total 4-yr stipend

 

Amount left over

$4,000,000,000

 Amount left over

50%

 

 

 

 

2. Give every employed person in Gr Cle rebate on first $2,000 of employment taxes

1,400,000

 Employed

 

Total payroll tax used

$2,800,000,000

 Total payroll tax used

 

Amount left over

$5,200,000,000

 Amount left over

65%

 

 

 

 

3. Give every Gr Cle person having personal bankrupcy in 2007 a new $150,000 house

13,814

 Personal Bankrupcies (econ.com)

Total cost of housing

$2,072,100,000

 Total cost of housing

 

Amount left over

$5,927,900,000

 Amount left over

74%

 

 

 

 

4. Give every owner-occupied homeowner in Gr Cle a $2,000 rebate on property taxes

811,000

 Homeowner

 

Total property tax rebates

$1,622,000,000

 Total payroll tax used

 

Amount left over

$6,378,000,000

 Amount left over

80%

 

 

 

 

5. Give 10% (guesstimate) of deliquent owner-occupied homeowners in Gr Cle a $10,000 loan to become current on loan

81,100

 Homeowners

 

Total property tax rebates

$811,000,000

 Total payroll tax used

 

Amount left over

$7,189,000,000

 Amount left over

90%

 

Project Name

Description

Estimated cost

Origin

Major Beneficiary (Not from GCP Source)

Maint or L-T Benefit

Innerbelt Reconstruction

portions of 71, 77 and 90 into downtown

$1,750,000,000

City of Cleveland

Region

Long-term

Opportunity Corridor

Limited access boulevard connecting 490 to Univ. Circle area

$314,000,000

City of Cleveland

Region, Cleveland

Long-term

Irishtown Bend

stabilization of hillside along Cuyahoga River

$65,000,000

City of Cleveland

Region, Cleveland

Long-term

West Shoreway-Lakefront Plan

Three miles of Route 2 on West side converted to Boulevard

$50,000,000

City of Cleveland

Cleveland

Long-term

Olmsted Township City-Resurface

Resurface, Olmsted Township

$5,000,000

Cuyahoga Co. Eng

SW Cuyahoga

Maint

Hillside Road

Resurface from Broadview Rd to Brecksville Rd

$2,000,000

Cuyahoga Co. Eng

South Cuyahoga

Maint

Austin Powder Drive Bridge

Village of Glenwillow--Tinkers Creek Replacement Project-DLZ design and plans completed

$1,000,000

Cuyahoga Co. Eng

SE Cuyahoga

Maint

Main Street Bridge

Replacement Project-Middleburg Hgts/Strongsville

$1,000,000

Cuyahoga Co. Eng

SW Cuyahoga

Maint

Dover Center Road

From Bay Village South Corp limit to Lake Rd

$750,000

Cuyahoga Co. Eng

W Cuyahoga

Maint

Puritas Rail Station-ADA Rehab

ADA accessibility and functionality issues

$8,500,000

GCRTA

GCRTA Riders

Maint

STJ-East Side Tansit Center

transit center, bus staging

$7,900,000

GCRTA

GCRTA Riders

Maint

Woodhill Rail Station-ADA Rehabilitation

ADA rehab, FTA compliance issues

$3,000,000

GCRTA

GCRTA Riders

Maint

Light Rail Trunk Line Turn-Outs

track replacement--safety issue

$2,000,000

GCRTA

GCRTA Riders

Maint

Redline S-Curve Track Replacement

track replacement--safety issue

$600,000

GCRTA

GCRTA Riders

Maint

Fluidized Bed Incinerators Southerly WWTP

Replace old incinerators--LEED Certified project

$82,000,000

NORSD

Regional Sewer

Maint

Lee Road Relief Sewer

intercommunity flow relief and overflow reduction

$25,000,000

NORSD

Regional Sewer

Long-term

Dugway East Interceptor Relief

Wet weather overflow relief

$23,000,000

NORSD

Regional Sewer

Long-term

Substation Replacement-Southerly

Substation replacement of electric infrastructure

$14,000,000

NORSD

Regional Sewer

Maint

Freeway Management System

Electronic Freeway mgmt system for Cuyahoga and adjacent counties

$26,300,000

ODOT-D12

Region

Long-term

Columbia & CSX Grade Separation

Grade separation at Columbia and the CSX RR

$8,300,000

ODOT-D12

W Cuyahoga

Maint

Detroit Streetscape

Paving portions of Detroit from W. 65th to W.74th

$3,000,000

ODOT-D12

Cleveland

Maint

NASA Glenn Plum Brook Station Runway*

Runway for NASA Glenn at Plumbrook Station

$80,000,000

Regional Priority

Region

Long-term

Port Relocation

port relocation and redevelopment

$200,000,000

Port Authority

Region, Cleveland

Long-term

TOTAL- REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS

 

$2,672,350,000

 

 

 

Cle-Akr CSA Pop

 

2,800,000

 

 

 

Cost per person

 

$954

 

 

 

Cle-Akr Households

 

1,200,000

 

 

 

Cost per household

 

$2,227

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Notes:

 

 

 

 

 

Innerbelt Reconstruction- estimated at $1.5-$2.0 billion

 

 

 

 

Irishtown Bend- hillisde along Cuyahoga River est'd at $50-$80 million

 

 

 

Opportunity Corridor- I490 to University Circle est'd at $261-$367 million

 

 

 

Port Relocation- Newspaper reports estimated at $200 million

 

 

 

 

Source: Greater Cleveland Partnership Build Up Greater Cleveland (BUGC) (Feb 18, 2009)

 

 

 

 

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